- Prior 58.3
- Manufacturing PMI 51.0 vs 54.0 expected
- Prior 54.6
- Composite PMI 52.8 vs 56.0 expected
- Prior 57.0
Uh oh. Here comes trouble. At the front of it, those are big misses with both the services and composite readings dropping to 5-month lows while the manufacturing reading is the weakest in 19 months. If you strip out the blip from the omicron impact at the start of the year, this is the weakest growth output in the French economy since April 2021.
Of note, weaker demand and persistent supply-side issues weighed on growth while inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply in relation to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). As such, this generates pressure of demand on a supply that does not increase at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation.How Does Inflation Affect Forex?The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels.This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare different purchasing powers of each country according to the general price level. In doing so, this makes it possible to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living.The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates on the forex market.Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on foreign exchange. Conversely, inflation that is too low (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the forex market.
Read this Term pressures continue to intensify with overall input costs rising by one of the quickest extents on record. S&P Global notes that:
“France endured a particularly sharp slowdown in growth during June, as well as a further bifurcation between the manufacturing and services economies. Nonetheless, trends deteriorated in a broad-based fashion over the month as high inflation begins to bite harder. Overall growth was at its slowest since the Omicron disruption was at its peak in January. Barring this though, the ‘flash’ PMI for June is at its lowest level since April 2021.
“While a loss of momentum was to be expected as the resumption of economic activities post-lockdown boosted growth, the slowdown has been aggravated by substantial price pressures. This has been particularly aggressive in the manufacturing sector, where output and new orders both declined strongly and for the first time since October last year, serving as a worrying sign for what could be to come for the service sector.
“The slowing economic trend in France is also compounded by a fresh bout of political uncertainty due to the hung parliament result in the national elections. Business confidence slid to a 19-month low in June. Overall, June ‘flash’ PMI data add to tangible recession risks for France.”
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